Future glacio-hydrological changes in the Andes: a focus on near-future projections up to 2050.

ABSTRACT: Assessing future water contributions from glaciers is crucial for managing water resources, preventing disasters, and protecting ecosystems and communities. However, Andean glacier runoff remains poorly understood because of missing regional and local research studies. We evaluated eight CMIP6 models (1990-2049), projected future changes in glacier runoff (2030-2049) and peak water throughout the 21st century in 778 Andean catchments (11°N-55°S), using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) under two extreme climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and 8.5). Projections for the mid-21st century show warming trends across the Andes, particularly in the Tropical Andes (+ 0.7 °C), while precipitation declines slightly in the Southern Andes (-1 to -3%). These changes significantly impact glacier runof

SUBMITTER: Caro A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11958771 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature