A novel tobacco forecasting model by multiple sociodemographic strata in Australia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Australia is one of several countries aiming to achieve a commercial tobacco endgame, with a current target of ≤5% daily smoking prevalence by 2030. Like other jurisdictions, the Australian target ignores large variations in smoking across sociodemographic groups and risks perpetuating current smoking-related inequities. To help mitigate this risk, we calculated future smoking rates under business-as-usual for multiple sociodemographic categories and compared them to the endgame target.

Methods

We used a simulated annealing optimization approach to estimate historic daily smoking rates in Australia by six dimensions of sex, age, remoteness, index of relative socioeconomic advantage and disadvantage, and Indigenous status, using multiple datasets from 2001 to 2022-

SUBMITTER: Howe S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11961201 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature