Climate-Driven Range Shifts and Conservation Challenges for Brown Bears in Turkiye.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the current and future distribution of wildlife species is crucial for effective conservation planning, particularly in the face of climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures. This study aims to assess the potential distribution of brown bears across Türkiye both presently, by 2050 and 2070, considering various climate change scenarios, evaluating habitat vulnerability, and reassessing the effectiveness of protected areas. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we modeled brown bears' current and future habitat suitability, incorporating 608 occurrence records along with bioclimatic, topographic, and anthropogenic predictors under climate scenarios. Our model estimates that approximately 17.3% of Türkiye (135,556 km²) currently offers suitable habitat f

SUBMITTER: Sıkdokur E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11962206 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature