Role of evolving sea surface temperature modes of variability in improving seasonal precipitation forecasts.

ABSTRACT: The value of improving longer-lead precipitation forecasting in the water-stressed, semi-arid western United States cannot be overstated, especially considering the severity and frequency of droughts that have plagued the region for much of the 21^st century. Seasonal prediction skill of current operational forecast systems, however, remain insufficient for decision-making purposes across a variety of applications. To address this capability gap, we develop a seasonal forecasting system that leverages the long-term memory of leading global and basin-scale modes of sea surface temperature variability. This approach focuses on characterizing and capitalizing on the spatiotemporal evolution of predictor modes over multiple antecedent seasons, instead of the customary use of predicti

SUBMITTER: Sengupta A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11968401 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature