Evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis B in Henan Province and its epidemic trend based on Bayesian structured time series model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There may be evidence that COVID-19 affects illness patterns. This study aimed to assess the effects of COVID-19 epidemic on the declines in hepatitis B (HB) case notifications and to estimate the epidemiological trends of HB in Henan.

Methods

The Bayesian structured time series (BSTS) method was used to investigate the causal effect of COVID-19 on the decline in HB cases based on the monthly incidence of HB from January 2013 to September 2022. To assess how well the BSTS algorithm performs predictions, we split the observations into various training and testing ranges.

Results

The incidence of HB in Henan was generally declining with periodicity and seasonality. The seasonal index in September and February was the smallest (0.91 and 0.93), and that in Marc

SUBMITTER: Li X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11978084 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature