Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities.

ABSTRACT: Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we estimate a net death burden due to climate change increasing by 49.9% and cumulati

SUBMITTER: Masselot P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12003192 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature