A Generic Risk Assessment Model for Animal Disease Entry through Wildlife: The Example of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and African Swine Fever in The Netherlands.

ABSTRACT: Animal diseases can enter countries or regions through the movements of infected wildlife. A generic risk model would allow to quantify the risk of entry via this introduction route for different diseases and wildlife species, despite the vast variety in both, and help policy-makers to make informed decisions. Here, we propose such a generic risk assessment model and illustrate its application by assessing the risk of entry of African swine fever (ASF) through wild boar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) through wild birds for the Netherlands between 2014-2021. We used disease outbreak data and abstracted movement patterns to populate a stochastic risk model. We found that the entry risk of HPAI fluctuated between the years, with a peak in 2021. In that year, we estimated the num

SUBMITTER: Counotte MJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12016805 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature