Asymmetric Effects of Weather-Integrated Human Brucellosis Forecasting System Using a New Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model.

ABSTRACT: Human brucellosis (HB) remains a significant public health concern in China. This study aimed to investigate the long- and short-term asymmetric impacts of meteorological variables on HB and develop an early prediction system. Monthly data on HB incidence and meteorological variables were collected from 2005 to 2020. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) to analyze the long- and short-term effects of climate variables on HB. Subsequently, the data were split into training (from January 2005 to December 2019) and testing parts (from January to December 2020) to develop and validate the forecasting accuracy of both models. During 2005-2020, there were 34,993 HB cases (2.03 per 100,000 persons) and there was an overall rising trend (average an

SUBMITTER: Wang Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12017184 | biostudies-literature | 2024

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature