The Forest After Tomorrow: Projecting the Impact of a Collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on European Tree-Species Distributions.

ABSTRACT: Forest tree species are expected to experience a substantial redistribution due to climate change. While previous work has emphasized the effects of a warmer and drier climate on European tree-species distributions, to date no study has investigated the potential impact of a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, we deploy climate-envelope models to quantile mapped, high-resolution (1km²) CMIP6 climate projections and compare tree-species distributions under an active AMOC vs. an inactive AMOC scenario. Across Europe, our tree-species projections indicate contrasting impacts of the two scenarios. In Scandinavia, many of the currently abundant tree species were projected a dramatic decline and partial disappearance due to the strong cooling unde

SUBMITTER: Heubel S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12019781 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature