Time series analysis for forecasting neonatal intensive care unit census and neonatal mortality.

ABSTRACT:

Background

This study analyzes time series data related to NICU (Neonatal Intensive Care Unit) census numbers, hospitalization days, and mortality rates.

Methods

We utilized seven years of retrospective daily NICU census data for model development, covering the period from March 2016 to December 2022, encompassing a total of 7,227 infants. We applied the best-fitting models of ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA) to forecast census numbers, lengths of hospital stays, and mortality proportions. Additionally, we conducted regression time series analysis to explore the relationships among these variables.

Results

The mortality proportion peaked in 2017 at 9.94%. The average duration of hospitalization was 12.42 days, with signific

SUBMITTER: Dalili H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12042487 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature