Joint estimation of hand-foot-mouth disease model and prediction in korea using the ensemble kalman filter.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In Korea, Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a recurring illness that presents significant public health challenges, primarily because of its unpredictable epidemic patterns. The accurate prediction of the spread of HFMD plays a vital role in the effective management of the disease.

Methods

We have devised a dynamic model that accurately represents the transmission dynamics of HFMD. The model includes compartments for susceptible, exposed, inpatients, outpatients, recovered, and deceased individuals. By utilizing monthly inpatient and outpatient data, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method was employed to perform a joint estimation of model parameters and state variables. The calibration of model parameters involved using data from the months of January to Ma

SUBMITTER: Abbas W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12047828 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature