Predicting the spread of invasive Imperata cylindrica under climate change: A global risk assessment and future distribution scenarios.

ABSTRACT: Invasive plant species, such as Imperata cylindrica (cogongrass), threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and lands worldwide. With climate change, the risk of invasions may increase as more favorable conditions enable non-native species to spread into new areas. This study employs the CLIMEX model to predict the potential distribution of I. cylindrica under current and future climate scenarios, under the SRES A2 scenario. A comprehensive dataset comprising 6,414 occurrence records was used to simulate the species' ecological niche based on key climatic parameters, including temperature and soil moisture. Our results indicate that more than 16% of the global land surface is currently highly suitable for I. cylindrica (Ecoclimatic Index ≥ 30), with significant risk areas identified i

SUBMITTER: Rad SPH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12063829 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature