Future Climate Shifts for Vegetation on Australia's Coastal Islands.

ABSTRACT: Small coastal islands serve as replicated units of space that are useful for studying community assembly. Using a unique database holding information on comprehensive vegetation surveys on > 840 small coastal islands fringing the whole continent of Australia, we investigated the extent to which conditions will change for plants on Australia's islands over the next 80 years in terms of their temperature envelopes and inferred changes in vapour pressure deficit (VPD). We found ~40% of island plant populations will experience mean annual temperatures beyond their current envelope. However, envelopes defined by VPD and extreme monthly temperatures are unlikely to be exceeded, highlighting islands' potential to act as climate refugia. Large species with slow life histories and poor dispersal tr

SUBMITTER: Coleman D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12076272 | biostudies-literature | 2025 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature