Quantitatively analyzing the relationship between non-pharmaceutical interventions and the direction of virus evolution using a dynamic model.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Since the emergence of COVID-19 in 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has persisted in mutating, giving rise to multiple variants of concern that have triggered several pandemics globally. The evolutionary trajectory of the virus is shaped by a combination of stochastic factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Investigating the direction of virus evolution and its underlying determinants is crucial for forecasting epidemic trends and formulating scientific responses to emerging infectious diseases.

Methods

To delve into the intricate relationship between NPIs and the virus's transmissibility, virulence, and immune evasion capabilities, as well as to explore the sociological mechanisms driving virus evolution, we developed a genetic algorithm grounded in a population d

SUBMITTER: Guo Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12098584 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature