Calculation of COVID-19 disease burden using Monte Carlo simulation with dynamic disability weights and analysis of transmission characteristics.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Disability Weights (DWs) are crucial for assessing disease burden guiding public health decision-making. For emerging health threats such as COVID-19, the absence of relevant survey data from China has led to reliance on established DW values for specific symptoms in calculating the COVID-19 disease burden. However, these values have not been updated in real-time to reflect the ongoing mutations of the virus, potentially skewing the longitudinal estimation of COVID-19's burden and compromising the accuracy of public health interventions.

Methods

This study developed a real-time estimation framework using longitudinal internet survey data to track changes in DW distributions across different populations over time. These distributions were integrated into Monte Carl

SUBMITTER: Chen W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12128244 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature