Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing.

ABSTRACT: Human emissions continue to influence Earth's climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth's energy balance. Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating the effective forcing usually relies on climate models. Here, we present an estimate of effective radiative forcing that makes optimal use of observations. We use machine learning to learn the relationship between surface temperature and radiation caused by internal variability in a multimodel ensemble. Combining this with observations of surface temperature and the Earth's net radiative imbalance, we predict an effective forcing trend of 0.71 [Formula: see text] 0.

SUBMITTER: Van Loon S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12184419 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature