Microsimulation Estimates of Decision Uncertainty and Value of Information Are Biased but Consistent.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Individual-level state-transition microsimulations (iSTMs) have proliferated for economic evaluations in place of cohort state transition models (cSTMs). Probabilistic economic evaluations quantify decision uncertainty and value of information (VOI). Previous studies show that iSTMs provide unbiased estimates of expected incremental net monetary benefits (EINMB), but statistical properties of iSTM-produced estimates of decision uncertainty and VOI remain uncharacterized.

Methods

We compare iSTM-produced estimates of decision uncertainty and VOI to corresponding cSTMs. For a 2-alternative decision and normally distributed incremental costs and benefits, we derive analytical expressions for the probability of being cost-effective and the expected value of perfect infor

SUBMITTER: Goldhaber-Fiebert JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12185039 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature