Predictive quality of census-based socio-economic indicators on Covid-19 infection risk at a fine spatial scale in France.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic in France induced the development of a national, high spatiotemporal resolution confirmed infection cases database. We aimed to estimate the predictive ability of census-based indicators on the infection risk to assess their potential usefulness in future pandemic response. We collected and aggregated all counts of biologically confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region in France at small-area statistical units between May 2020 and February 2021 (second wave). Ten census-based ecological covariates were evaluated as predictors of case incidence using a Poisson regression with conditional autoregressive (CAR) spatial effects. Benefits of CAR effects and covariates on model predictive ability was assessed comparing posterior predictive di

SUBMITTER: Romain-Scelle N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12214651 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature