Mapping global risk of bat and rodent borne disease outbreaks to anticipate emerging threats.

ABSTRACT: Future epidemics and/or pandemics may likely arise from zoonotic viruses with bat- and rodent-borne pathogens being among the prime candidates. To improve preparedness and prevention strategies, we predicted the global distribution of bat- and rodent-borne viral infectious disease outbreaks using geospatial modeling. We developed species distribution models based on published outbreak occurrence data, applying machine learning and Bayesian statistical approaches to assess disease risk. Our models demonstrated high predictive accuracy (TSS = 0.87 for bat-borne, 0.90 for rodent-borne diseases), identifying precipitation and bushmeat activities as key drivers for bat-borne diseases, while deforestation, human population density, and minimum temperature influenced rodent-borne diseases. The pr

SUBMITTER: Jagadesh S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12214798 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature