Comparison between simulated scenarios and Swedish COVID-19 cases throughout the pandemic.

ABSTRACT: This study assesses the accuracy of COVID-19 scenarios for new infections produced by the Swedish Public Health Agency (PHAS) from December 1, 2020, to March 20, 2023. We introduce a Similarity Error ([Formula: see text]), which evaluates the dissimilarity between simulated and observed case time series using the following attributes: area under the curves, peak timings, and growth/decline rates before and after peaks. Rather than using an arbitrary cut-off, we used a threshold determined through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, with performance evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC), based on true positives identified by visual inspection for categorization. To further evaluate [Formula: see text]'s effectiveness, we conducted a sensitivity analysis across the ful

SUBMITTER: Darabi H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12222681 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature