High tree diversity exposed to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions even under minimal anthropogenic climate change.

ABSTRACT: Tree species worldwide face increasing exposure to unprecedented macroclimatic conditions due to anthropogenic climate change, which may trigger biome shifts and ecosystem disruptions. We quantified climate change exposure-shifts to species' currently unoccupied climate zones-for 32,089 tree species globally by 2100, assessing both species-level and local tree diversity risks. On average, 69% of species are predicted to experience macroclimatic shifts in at least 10% of their range, while 14% face exposure in over 50% of their range under a high-emission (4 °C warming) future scenario. This suggests that most species retain substantial climate refugia within their current range. However, local tree diversity exposure is predicted to be severe in vast regions, including Eurasia, the northwe

SUBMITTER: Boonman CCF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12232708 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature