Modelling the impact of climate and the environment on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Lyme borreliosis in Germany.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is a predominant vector-borne disease in Europe, with Germany reporting endemic circulation for at least the past two decades. Climatic and environmental conditions are key drivers of tick activity, and human exposure to tick bites. Understanding the climatic and environmental factors driving LB dynamics can help devise decision-support tools to guide interventions and adaptation strategies.

Methods

Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we assessed the delayed and nonlinear associations between climate variation and land use change and monthly LB case counts from the German national notification system at a district level from 2009 to 2022. We evaluated the predictive performance of our model and then predicted risk trends in states without m

SUBMITTER: Batista ML 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12242607 | biostudies-literature | 2025 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature