Long-term trends and future projections of the burden of tuberculosis among children and adolescents in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

China ranks third in estimated TB incidence in 2023, accounting for 6.8% of the global cases. TB in children and adolescents is a public health issue that today warrants priority attention in China.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to investigate the burden of TB among Chinese children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2021 and to estimate the incidence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate from 2022 to 2031.

Methods

The Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods of significant change and autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling was employed to predict the TB burden for 2022-2031.

Results

The study indicated that China has significantly reduced the TB burden among chil

SUBMITTER: Li N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12270101 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature