Multi-scale phylodynamic modelling of rapid punctuated pathogen evolution.

ABSTRACT: Computational multi-scale pandemic modelling remains a major and timely challenge. Here we identify specific requirements for a new class of models simulating pandemics across three scales: (1) pathogen evolution, often punctuated by the rapid emergence of new variants, (2) human interactions within a heterogeneous population, and (3) public health responses which constrain individual actions to control the disease transmission. We then present a pandemic modelling framework satisfying these requirements and capable of simulating feedback loops between dynamics unfolding at these different scales. The developed framework comprises a stochastic agent-based model of pandemic spread, coupled with a phylodynamic model that incorporates within-host pathogen evolution. It is validated with a cas

SUBMITTER: Nguyen QD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12270310 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature