Primary health care data-based early warning system for dengue outbreaks: a nationwide case study in Brazil.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Traditional surveillance presents limitations for early outbreak detection. Primary health care (PHC) administrative data applied to syndromic surveillance offers a cost-effective way to integrate early warning systems (EWS). We evaluate the potential of an EWS for dengue outbreaks using PHC data in Brazil.

Methods

We applied the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS-C1 and EARS-C2) to arbovirus-related PHC encounters from October 1, 2022, to March 1, 2024, to establish an EWS across 5570 municipalities. We assessed EWS timeliness, sensitivity, and positive predictive value (PPV) against fixed-incidence dengue outbreak thresholds.

Findings

Arbovirus-related PHC encounters occurred in 5364 (96.3%) and dengue cases in 5269 (94.6%) Brazilian municipalities.

SUBMITTER: Santos-Silva R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12270639 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature