Predictiveness and drivers of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Europe.

ABSTRACT: Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks are on an increasing trajectory. This disease carries a substantial economic burden, resulting in considerable losses to farmers with profound impacts on economies. As the outbreaks continue in birds and other unusual host species, further virus evolution and spillover to humans' risk is anticipated to grow and potentially involve into new pandemics. Despite this, the underlying drivers of the outbreaks remain elusive. We develop machine learning models capable of predicting HPAI events in Europe dynamically uncovering the critical determinants of their onset. Temperature, water index, vegetation index, and poultry density play pivotal roles, with their importance coming into play at different times of the year. Temperature, water index, and vegetation index

SUBMITTER: Opata MR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12271378 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature