Quantifying the contributions of cardiovascular risk factors to cardiovascular disease trends in 21st century Japan: a microsimulation study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent stagnation or worsening trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and obesity, might slow the decline in Japan's CVD burden. We aimed to quantify the impact of national changes in CVD risk factor distributions on Japan's CVD burden from 2001 to 2019.

Methods

We conducted a microsimulation study with counterfactual analysis using IMPACT_NCD-JPN, a validated model based on real-world data. It simulated a synthetic Japanese population (ages 30-99) from 2001 to 2019 using life-course data on seven CVD risk factors, estimating CVD incidence, mortality, and healthcare economics for synthetic individuals. The base-case reflected observed trends; counterfactual scenarios assumed 2001 levels

SUBMITTER: Ogata S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12274934 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature