Trend analysis and epidemiological forecasting of colorectal Cancer mortality among reproductive-age women in sub-Saharan Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the region with the highest fertility rates globally, colorectal cancer (CRC) is emerging as a major public health challenge for women of childbearing age. This study aimed to analyze CRC mortality trends, identify key driving factors, and predict future mortality patterns among women of childbearing age in SSA.

Methods

We assessed CRC mortality among women of childbearing age across four SSA subregions and 46 countries, calculating age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). The Das Gupta decomposition method quantified the contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model projected mortality trends from 2022 to 2040, and an Autoregressi

SUBMITTER: Zhao J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12275479 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature