Mixed Evidence for Species Diversity Affecting Ecological Forecasts in Constant Versus Declining Light.

ABSTRACT: Accurate forecasts of ecological dynamics are critical for ecosystem management and conservation, yet the drivers of forecastability are poorly understood. Environmental change and diversity are considered major challenges to ecological forecasting. This assumption, however, has never been tested experimentally because forecasts have high data requirements. In a long-term microcosm experiment, we manipulated the species richness of 30 experimental protist communities and exposed them to constant or gradually decreasing light levels. We collected finely resolved time series (123 sampling dates over 41 weeks) of species abundances, community biomass, and oxygen concentrations. We then employed data-driven forecasting methods to forecast these variables. We found that species richness and lig

SUBMITTER: Limberger R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12280262 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature