Scenario based land use simulation for climate adaptability in coastal urban agglomerations of Guangdong Hong Kong and Macao Bay area.

ABSTRACT: In the context of global climate change, coastal urban agglomerations encounter numerous challenges, especially under the condition of rapid urbanization, which consistently threatens human life, property, and well-being. This paper presents the Ecological-Risk Constrained Land Expansion Modeling Framework to explore the land expansion patterns of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) coastal urban agglomeration from a climate adaptation perspective. We utilized InVEST and GIS to quantify the ecosystem services and coastal vulnerability index (CVI) of urban agglomerations, delimiting the ecological resilience regions and risk resilience regions as constraints for land expansion simulation. Eventually, we simulated five scenarios of land expansion in the GBA in 2035 using the

SUBMITTER: Wang J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12304197 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature