Smooth predictions for age-period-cohort models: a comparison between splines and random process.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models are well used in the context of modelling health and demographic data to produce smooth predictions of each time trend. When producing smooth predictions in the context of APC models, there are two main schools, frequentist using penalised splines, and Bayesian using random processes with little crossover between them.

Methods

We compared prediction using APC models in either a frequentist or Bayesian paradigm using theory, simulated data, and two separate real-world data examples for mental ill-health outcomes. For the theoretical comparison, we describe each method and give an accessible description highlighting how the two methods are equivalent. For the simulated and real-world data, we compared the results for both in-sample (es

SUBMITTER: Gascoigne C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12306036 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature