Effects of environmental factors on dengue incidence in the Central Region, Burkina Faso: A time series analyses.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Dengue is endemic in Burkina Faso with sporadic outbreaks during the decade 2011-2021. Dengue control depends on the ability to predict future outbreaks. This study aimed to forecast dengue cases using historical data between 2016 and 2021.

Methods

The study covered the Central Region, Burkina Faso, with dengue monthly data from the National System of Health Information (SNIS) and environmental data from the National Agency of Meteorology (ANAM). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was performed to forecast dengue cases between 2022 and 2025.

Results

Dengue cases increased gradually between 2016 and 2021, with seasonal spikes during the year. The 95 per cent confidence interval exceeds 5000 cases by 2023 and reaches about 10,000 cases by 2025. F

SUBMITTER: Ouedraogo JCRP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12313059 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature