Predicting the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa.

ABSTRACT: Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continuously mutated and evolved, causing several waves of infection. Predicting the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 remains a challenge. This study combines the epidemic data of different variants of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa to predict their evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics. Based on the susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) transmission dynamics, we consider the transmission rate as an evolutionary trait and the disease-deduced mortality and recovery rates as trade-off functions of the trait. Using the adaptive dynamics method, combined with the epidemic data of the five most recent variants in South Africa, we fi

SUBMITTER: Ma C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12323434 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature