Scenario-based Kaya identity analysis for city-level carbon dioxide emissions.

ABSTRACT: Many countries worldwide have committed to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions in response to climate change. In China, cities are striving to achieve their 2030 peak carbon emission targets. In this study, we developed a scenario-based Kaya identity analysis methodology to explore the notable uncertainty inherent in future carbon dioxide emissions. Using the case of Changning City, Hunan province, China, we found that under the business-as-usual scenario, the city's carbon dioxide emissions of 3,839.1 thousand tons in 2022 are projected to reach 4,674.3 thousand tons in 2031. Changning is unlikely to achieve its carbon peak target. In a more challenging future scenario of rapid economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise from 3,839.1 thousand tons in 2022-5,447 thousa

SUBMITTER: Liu J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12334010 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature