Long-term forecasting and evaluation of medicine consumption for the ATC class H with a focus on thyroid hormones in OECD countries using ARIMA models.

ABSTRACT: Thyroid hormones are among the most prescribed medicines. In many countries, there are shortages combined with evidence of overuse and irrational prescribing. An analysis was conducted for ATC class H with a focus on thyroid hormones for OECD countries. This study aims to evaluate prescribing behaviours, forecast long-term developments and promote rational prescribing behaviour. The ARIMA(2,1,2) (autoregressive integrated moving average) model successfully predicted the future for 30 OECD countries and the non-OECD country Croatia until 2040. An upward trend is forecast for 18 countries, including Austria (+ 5.7%), Chile (+ 220.0%), Czechia (+ 52.8%), Denmark (+ 15.6%), Estonia (+ 87.8%), Greece (+ 238.7%), Hungary (+ 5.7%), Iceland (+ 18.6%), Italy (+ 42.9%), Latvia (+ 83.7%), Lithuania (

SUBMITTER: Bindel LJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12350577 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature