A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the preparedness and response to the disease. In this context, we propose a Bayesian forecasting model based on historical data to predict the number of cases 52 weeks ahead for the 118 health districts of Brazil. We leverage the predictions to build probabilistic epidemics bands to be used for dengue monitoring. We define four disjoint probabilistic bands (≤50% (50%, 75%] (75%, 90%], and > 90%), based on the percentiles of the predicted cases distribution and interpreted according to the historical number of cases and past occurrence probability (below the median, typical; moderately high, fairly

SUBMITTER: Picinini Freitas L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12359213 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature