A Comprehensive Analysis and Forecast of Rabies Epidemic and Elimination Challenges - China, 2005-2023.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The 2030 global target for eliminating dog-mediated human rabies, jointly proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other international organizations, presents significant challenges for China. This study analyzes epidemiological trends (2005-2023), forecasts future case numbers, and compares China's progress with elimination strategies from the United States, Japan, and Brazil to optimize national rabies prevention and control approaches.

Methods

Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of human rabies cases across China. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was employed to forecast cases for the next two years, with the optimal model selected based on indicators, including the Akaike

SUBMITTER: Zhang N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12360317 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature