Time series analysis of dengue incidence and its association with meteorological risk factors in Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease affecting tropical and subtropical regions. In Bangladesh, dengue fever remains a rising public health threat driven by meteorological factors. This study aimed to assess the temporal trends and how meteorological factors influence dengue incidence in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2024. Monthly reported dengue cases were analyzed using time series forecasting techniques and multivariate Poisson regression models. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models were used for forecasting. Correlation analysis and Poisson regression assessed meteorological effects with one- and two-month lags. The result indicates that the highest number of dengue cases was found in September 2023 (79,598 cases). Auto

SUBMITTER: Alam KE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12360610 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature