Using routine health care data to develop and validate a system dynamics simulation model of frailty trajectories in an ageing population.

ABSTRACT: Frailty is common in older adults and has a substantial impact on patient outcomes and service use. Information to support service planning, including prevalence in middle-aged adults and patterns of frailty progression at population level, is scarce. This paper presents a system dynamics model describing the dynamics of frailty and ageing within a population of patients aged ≥50, based on linked data for 2.2 million patients from primary care practices in England. The purpose of the model is to estimate the incidence and prevalence of frailty in an ageing population over time. The model was developed in consultation with stakeholders (patients, carers, clinicians, and commissioners) and validated against another large dataset (1.38 million patients) from Wales. It was then scaled up to th

SUBMITTER: England T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12364089 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature