Simulation Modeling of Oral Cancer Development with Risk Stratification: How Potential Screening Programs Can Be Evaluated.

ABSTRACT: Background. A barrier to early-stage oral cavity cancer detection is the lack of a defined population and screening regimen satisfying risk-benefit considerations. Methods. We constructed a microsimulation model, Simulation of Cancers of the Oral cavity and Risk Exposures (SCORE), that incorporates risk profiles defined by smoking and alcohol exposure. SCORE simulates the development and progression of oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMD) representing benign, dysplastic, or malignant lesions in the US population starting at age 40 y. OPMD high-risk characteristics of malignant transformation informed a biopsy decision rule. SCORE was calibrated to national cancer registry data. We compared life expectancy in those aged 40 to 60 y with OPMDs, cancer incidence, and cancer-specific dea

SUBMITTER: Siriruchatanon M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12368318 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Jul-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature