On a microdemographic framework for decomposing contemporary fertility dynamics.

ABSTRACT: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) obscures key components of fertility dynamics, leading to a calculated 49% information loss and a substantive 0·385 reduction in Adjusted R² compared to its decomposed components: the Total Maternal Rate (TMR) and Children per Mother (CPM), formalized in this study, where TFR = TMR × CPM. Further, TMR and CPM were found to be statistically independent, which is demonstrated to lead to ambiguity in the TFR, findings that carry important implications for demographic analysis and policy evaluation. Aggregated birth data from 158 million mothers in Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States were analyzed from national statistical databases1-4, with validation and extension using data from an additional 156 million women across 29 further higher-incom

SUBMITTER: Shaw SJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12370919 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature