Analysis of mortality trends and projected burden of digestive system cancer in China: a nationwide longitudinal analysis (2006-2020) with mortality forecasts to 2045.

ABSTRACT: To estimate mortality trends and disease burden of Digestive system cancer (DSC) in China during 2006-2020, using demographic and mortality data from cause-of-death surveillance dataset of China. Joinpoint regression was applied to calculate the crude mortality rate (CMR), age standardized mortality rate (ASMR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage change (AAPC) for analyzing the trend of death change, and years of life expectancy lost (LLE) and early death lost life (YLL) were utilized to assess disease burden. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort models were employed to project future mortality trends up to 2045. From 2006 to 2020, the combined ASMR and YLL rates for female DSC showed stability, with an average life expectancy loss of 7.06 years and the highest YLL rate in

SUBMITTER: Feng Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12381346 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature