The impact of public health shocks on fertility intentions: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

China's persistent fertility decline poses serious long-term demographic and socioeconomic challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced additional uncertainty, raising questions about how external shocks affect fertility intentions in real time.

Objective

This study examines the causal impact of localized COVID-19 shocks on fertility intentions in China, as measured by high-frequency digital search data that capture real-time behavioral shifts.

Methods

We construct a monthly city-level fertility index based on Baidu search volumes for pregnancy-related keywords across 222 cities (2019-2022). COVID-19 exposure is measured using sustained "high-risk" status over 14 consecutive days. A staggered difference-in-differences design is employed, with robustness

SUBMITTER: Guo Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12399519 | biostudies-literature | 2025

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature