Early Detection of Dengue Outbreaks: Transmission Model Analysis of a Dengue Outbreak in a Remote Setting in Ecuador.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Pathogen transmission of an outbreak generally begins well before it is identified by a surveillance system, particularly for infectious diseases in which a high proportion of cases are subclinical, as is the case for arboviruses. We aimed to ascertain the most likely date of the primary case (the first infection, whether detected or not) in an outbreak.

Methods

Using data from a 2019 dengue outbreak in a rural, riverine town in Northwestern Ecuador, we investigated potential undetected dengue virus transmission before the outbreak detected in mid-May. The outbreak was preceded by four reported cases on 9 February, 13 February, 28 March, and 2 May. Using a hidden Markov model, we estimate the most likely date of the primary case for different assumed case reportin

SUBMITTER: Van Wyk H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12404040 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature