Estimating the carcinogenesis timelines in early-onset versus late-onset cancers and changes across birth cohorts.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the timing of key mutational events in cancer development is critical for informing cancer prevention and detection strategies, particularly for early-onset cases that have increased in recent years. Yet intermediate mutational events are challenging to observe in humans. Here, we extend a tumor kinetic model we recently developed and long-term cancer registries data to estimate the expected timing of intermediate mutational events for breast, colorectal, and thyroid cancers. We formulate three distinct systems of ordinary differential equations, each describing cell evolution sequentially through three stages of carcinogenesis, up to the first occurrence of malignant transition. We further apply a convolution-based method to derive probability distributions and compute the e

SUBMITTER: Mirzaei NM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12407671 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature