Epidemiological trends of early-onset gastrointestinal cancers from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2036: analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Gastrointestinal cancers account for 39.0% of global cancer-related deaths. The rising incidence of early-onset gastrointestinal cancers poses a substantial public health challenge due to their aggressive nature and poor prognosis.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analyzed temporal trends (1990-2021) in age-standardized incidence (ASIR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) rates for early-onset gastrointestinal cancers among individuals aged 15-49 years. Analyses included burden by age, sex, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression estimated average annual percentage changes (AAPC), and future trends (2022-2036) were projected using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model.

Results

SUBMITTER: Gong YQ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12416015 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature