Patterns of HIV-1 viral load suppression and drug resistance during the dolutegravir transition: a population-based longitudinal study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Data on the population-scale impact of dolutegravir (DTG)-based HIV regimens in sub-Saharan Africa are extremely limited. We used data from a surveillance cohort in southern Uganda to assess viral suppression and antiretroviral (ART) resistance over 10-years alongside DTG scale-up.

Methods

Consenting participants in the population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study between August 2011 and March 2023 aged 15-59 completed questionnaires and provided samples for HIV testing, viral load quantification, and viral deep-sequencing. We collected data on DTG-utilization at HIV care clinics. We estimated the prevalence of HIV suppression (<1,000 copies/mL) and ART resistance using robust Poisson regression. Bayesian logistic regression quantified associations between resistance and individual-level suppression across surveys.

Findings

Among 20,383 people living with HIV (PLHIV), suppression increased from 57.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 55.4%-58.8%) to 90.3% (95%CI: 89.2%-91.4%) between 2014 and 2022. By 2020 84.4% (95%CI: 83.7%-85.2%) and 64.6% (95%CI: 63.9%-65.3%) of men and women were on DTG regimens. Among treatment-experienced viremic PLHIV, overall resistance decreased from 51.1% (95%CI: 40.7%-64.1%, 2014) to 27.9% (95%CI: 21.3%-36.5%, 2022). Only two participants harbored intermediate/high-level DTG resistance, attributable to inQ148R, inE138K, and inG140A. Low-level INSTI resistance (inS153Y) was observed in 23/207 (7.5%) of viremic individuals, with putative evidence of transmission. By 2022, suppression was unrelated to prior history of NNRTI/NRTI resistance (risk ratios: 1.14, 95%HPD: 0.96-1.32 and 1.12, 95%HPD: 0.88 - 1.35).

Interpretation

Viral suppression increased during the DTG-transition with minimal emerging intermediate/high-level resistance. Falling resistance among treatment-experienced PLHIV underscores the role of ART adherence in reducing viremia. The emergence of inS153Y justifies continued genomic surveillance of ART resistance.

Funding

National Institutes of Health and the Gates Foundation.

SUBMITTER: Martin MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12424902 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature