How cognitive biases affect winning probability perception in beach volleyball experts.

ABSTRACT: In professional beach volleyball, the belief in "never give up" is deeply ingrained, but its strategic implications remain underexplored. This study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining sport psychology and sport informatics, to assess the perception of set-winning probabilities (SWPs) in beach volleyball, as this is a crucial factor for strategic in-game decisions and improved performance. We examined cognitive biases and adaptive strategies influencing SWP estimations in scenarios of substantial trailing or leading. Forty-three members of the German beach volleyball national team estimated SWPs for 60 scores, responded to questions on game tactics, and completed questionnaires measuring optimism, pessimism, confirmation bias, and the sunk cost fallacy. Empirical SWPs were calculat

SUBMITTER: Ittlinger S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12426222 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature