Estimating recent trends in alcohol sales in the United Kingdom from alcohol duty revenue.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant changes in individual-level alcohol consumption and a sharp increase in heavy drinking in the United Kingdom (UK). More recently, high rates of inflation, the resulting 'cost of living crisis' and reforms to alcohol taxation have affected the affordability of alcohol, but little is understood about how these changes have impacted on alcohol sales and consumption. We aimed to measure recent trends in alcohol sales by assessing changes in alcohol duty revenue collected by the UK government since 2020.

Methods

We used published data on UK alcohol duty revenue to model trends from 2010 to 2019. We forecasted these trends through to January 2025 using a novel statistical approach and compared these forecast

SUBMITTER: Angus C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12426364 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature