Predicting Forest Tree Leaf Phenology Under Climate Change Using Satellite Monitoring and Population-Based Genomic Trait Association.

ABSTRACT: Leaf phenology, a critical determinant of plant fitness and ecosystem function, is undergoing rapid shifts due to global climate change, yet its complex genetic and environmental drivers remain incompletely understood. Understanding the genetic basis of phenological adaptation is crucial for forecasting forest responses to a changing climate. Here, we integrate multi-year satellite-derived phenology from 46 Fagus sylvatica (European beech) populations across Germany with a population-based genome-wide association study to dissect the environmental and genetic drivers of leaf-out day (LOD) and leaf shedding day (LSD). We show that environmental factors, particularly temperature forcing and water availability, are the primary drivers of LOD variation, while LSD is influenced by a more comple

SUBMITTER: Pfenninger M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC12426880 | biostudies-literature | 2025 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature